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Portfolio Risk Adjusted Premiums - Matching PI's Profit Probabilities

Assume that brand new $D$ and $E$ (actually Claims Costs Managers) want $PI$'s probability (0.8413) of earning profits of at least 5% on portfolios of 100,000 (10,000) policyholders. Their standard errors are higher than $PI$'s, so $PRAP5_{D}$ = 0.9581 (0.7500 + 0.0500 + 1 * 0.1581) and $PRAP5_{E}$ = 1.3000 (0.7500 + 0.0500 + 1 * 0.5000) are the portions of each dollar of $PI$'s Earned Premiums $D$ and $E$ need to match $PI$'s probability of earning profits of at least 5% on their portfolios.If $PI$ pays 10 $D$s [100 $E$s] less than 95.81% (0.7500 + 0.05 + 15.81) [130.00% (0.7500 + 0.05 + 0.5000)] of its Earned Premiums for transferring its Claims Costs, they do not match $PI$'s profit probability. If $PI$ adequately compensates $D$ and $E$, it incurs catastrophic operating losses of 10.81% and 45% on each transfer, becoming insolvent, and about 62.41% of $D$'s will have PLREs below 0.8000, as will 53.98% of $E$'s, so they will be grossly overpaid by 15.81% and 50% of $PI$'s Earned Premiums.


next up previous contents
Next: Portfolio Risk Adjusted Premiums Up: Risk Adjusted Premiums Previous: Risk Adjusted Premiums   Contents
Thomas Cox PhD RN 2013-02-23